Voters’ attitudes toward recreational marijuana have changed dramatically over the past month, according to a new Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College poll.
The poll, conducted October 17-18, 2022, collected the opinions of 974 potential voters statewide in Arkansas. Respondents asked:
s. On November 8, voters will be asked to consider a single proposed constitutional amendment proposed by the people. Version 4 authorizes the possession, personal use, and consumption of cannabis by adults in Arkansas sold by licensed adult dispensaries and provides for the regulation of those facilities. If elections were held today, would you vote for or against number 4?
Certainly for – 36.5%
Probably for – 14% (50.5% for)
maybe vs – 9.5%
Definitely against – 33.5% (43% against)
Unspecified – 6.5%
A month ago, a TB & P-Hendrix Poll In support, 58.5% opposed and 12.5% were undecided.
“Version 4, which would legalize adult cannabis use, has seen a massive movement over the past month. Opponents have been able to improve their standing by swaying undecided voters and even stripping away some of the soft support that was previously in place,” said Robbie Brook, Editor-in-Chief of Talk Business & Politics “I think the media campaigns for and against this measure make it the most interesting statewide race to watch on election night.”
Talk Business & Politics seeks bipartisan input in the construction and analysis of opinion polls.
Dr. Jay Barth, Professor Emeritus of Politics at Hendrix College, is active in Democratic Party politics and helped draft and analyze the latest poll. Presented this analysis of the survey results:
“The big change in this poll from the September poll was on #4. In the most recent poll, the Supreme Court had not yet decided whether votes on the measure put on the ballot would be counted through the petition process. Shortly thereafter, The Supreme Court gave the go-ahead for the vote count and campaigns began in earnest on both sides.While support for recreational marijuana legalization still has majority support in this poll, the scale has lost about 8 points of support in recent weeks.In the meantime, the opposition has emerged by 14 points. The indeterminate numbers, already relatively low, have also disappeared.
“In this poll, we also allowed supporters and opponents to group themselves in specific or potential support for the actions. Here, the opposition is more consistent in its views as more number 4 supporters are still open to changing their views on the issue between now and casting votes. Like a knockout before the Supreme Court action now looks like a very imminent call.Problem 4 is definitely an advantage but it will probably be close.
Regarding the attitudes of subgroups of voters, Democrats, the smallest subgroup of voters, and African American voters are the most supportive. Independents also continue to show majority support, although those margins have decreased slightly since September. It was Republican voters who turned so hard that six out of 10 GOP members are now in opposition while pluralists backed the measure in September. College educated voters along with voters in the second congressional district are also showing majority support.”
Robert Kohn, managing partner at Impact Management Group, which works with Republican political candidates, also helped draft and analyze the latest poll. Presented this analysis of the survey results:
Support for Version 4 has fallen since September by 8 percentage points, while opposition has grown by even more – 14 percentage points. Younger voters continue to support Cause 4 by large margins; However, among 45-64 year olds in particular, support has declined (-15%). Republican voters have now turned against the ballot measure as opposition among that group has risen to 60%, compared to 41% who opposed it in September. While the Democrats did not change, support fell by 12 percentage points and opposition rose by 13 percentage points among independents. The trend line heading into Election Day should alarm supporters and energize opponents, and will likely bring the vote much closer than previously expected.”
The poll of 974 potential voters in Arkansas was conducted October 17-18, 2022 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.
less than 30 – 5%
Between 45-64 – 40%
65 and over – 35%
College graduate 36%
Non-university graduate 64%
Responses were collected via SMS over the phone. The survey is weighted slightly to account for key demographics including age, race, education, and gender.
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