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Thursday, February 2, 2023

Five states that can legalize marijuana in November

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On November 8, voters in five states will decide initiatives to legalize adult cannabis use: Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota. Notably, all but Maryland can be considered “red” states, having voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since at least 2000. blue or purple;

Although most Republican lawmakers oppose cannabis legalization, More Republican voters nationwide Support it rather than oppose it. But winning the ballot in the more conservative states presents organizers with the challenge of getting beyond the cities that are usually blue islands.

Here’s what polls show us so far in the five states that are about to vote:

Arkansas: September survey About 59 percent of potential voters showed support – with 75 percent of Democrats, 63 percent of Independents, and a plurality of Republicans (but not a majority). However, a The poll was released on October 23 The race showed a tightening, with 51 percent in favor and 43 percent against.

Maryland: a September poll Of potential voters, 59 percent showed support – with 70 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents support, but 53 percent of Republicans disagree.

Missouri: a September survey 62 percent showed support — including 77 percent of Democrats, 57 percent of independents, and 54 percent of Republicans.

South Dakota: October poll 45 percent were in favour, versus 47 percent opposed – a very small gap within the poll’s margin of error. However, when I arrived before purifierthe South Dakotan Group for Better Marijuana Laws participated in internal polls that showed 54 percent support — with solid majorities of Democrats and independents, but not Republicans.

North Dakota: No current poll available.

Age can determine more than party

In North Dakota, already a previous legalization attempt Not Performing well in some of the state’s largest cities. The organizers there know they can’t rely solely on Democratic voters, and they have to appeal across party lines.

“In terms of party disintegration, there has been a significant shift in support among Republicans over the past 10-20 years,” said Jared Moffat, government campaigns director for the Marijuana Policy Project. purifier. “At this point they are around 50-50. Democrats tend to be more supportive, and Independents are somewhere in the middle.”

“We don’t want to assume that Republicans are against, because a lot of them aren’t.”

However, age may be a stronger factor than party when it comes to supporting legalization. “The younger a voter is, the more likely they are to support it, while older voters tend to be less supportive,” Moffat said. “It seems other demographics don’t really have a big influence.”

He continued, “We want to see a turnout among all groups.” “We don’t want to assume that Republicans are against, because a lot of them aren’t.”

Across the border in South Dakota, a representative for the state of South Dakota for better marijuana laws purifier“Our path to victory is to maintain the lead we currently hold by ensuring that our opponents do not outspend us and at the same time drive out our supporters. The biggest risk we face is the complacency of the 27 pro-measure voters who do not always participate in the midterm elections.”

In Maryland, a solid blue state, defenders are very confident of victory. “I think this initiative will pass whatever happens, at least 51 percent,” said Kevin Ford Jr., Treasurer of Uplift Action Maryland PAC. purifier. “Hopefully she’s over 60.”

Ford and his allies are working to get the vote out in the state’s black-majority areas, in part to emphasize Social Justice Effects of rationing. “The reason we focus on black jurisdictions in the first place is because we want to make sure that they actually come out and vote for this,” he said. “When someone asks you do you support this, they will say yes. But are they really going to the polls to make their voices heard?”

“It’s more of a generation gap than anything else.”

When it comes to the party, Ford doesn’t think the sounds will show a simple red and blue split. “I think the Republicans have been very pro-business on this,” he said. “There were very few lawmakers who voted against the measure in the General Assembly…I don’t really think it was a partisan thing.”

Like Moffat, he noted, “the generational divide is more than anything else.”

advocates in Missouri And the Arkansas They have previously expressed confidence in their prospects. But in Arkansas, in particular, Republican lawmakers have relentlessly attacked legalization, and that appears to be reflected in a tightening of polls as “more Republicans seem to be holding back,” according to the marijuana moment.

Can previous voices tell us anything?

Of the five states that voted to legalize cannabis next month, four states have voted on some measures to legalize cannabis in the past six years.

In Arkansas, voters in 2016 approved an amendment to legalize medical marijuana at 53 percent. Dividing it by province, we see the adjustment good performance In all the most populous areas – in and around Little Rock, the capital and largest city, and in other counties with larger cities. But it also won in some rural areas, including Shecott, Disha, Phillips, Calhoun and Nevada counties.

in North Dakota, Voters in 2018 decided against Legalization of marijuana. With more than 59 percent opposition, the scale lost 3 in 49 of the state’s 53 counties. Cass County, home to Fargo, the state’s largest city, won. But it lost Burley County – the seat of the state capital, Bismarck – and Grand Forks and Ward counties, which also have larger cities. However, it has won in Benson, Roulette, and Sioux counties, all of which are rural. Sioux County, which has fewer than 4,000 residents, approved the measure by the highest margin anywhere in the state, at more than 70 percent (it falls entirely within the Standing Rock Preserve).

in 2020, South Dakota voters Amendment A was approved to legalize adult use of cannabis, with 54 percent support statewide. It won the counties of Minha, Lincoln, Bennington, Brown, Brookings, and Coddington – home to the state’s five largest populated cities, including Sioux Falls and Rapid City. But it also did well in more rural areas across the state. In fact, the two areas that performed best in the state were Oglala Lakota and Todd counties, which have fewer than 500 residents (both are Native American reservations). You’d think South Dakota wouldn’t need to vote on this a second time, but a lawsuit funded by Governor Kristi Noem (right) led to The decision of the Supreme Court of the State The 2020 win is invalidated for procedural reasons.

finally, Missouri voters Certified Medical Marijuana Certification by more than 65 percent in 2018. The results by county follow no political divide — they performed well in and around the state’s largest cities, including St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, Columbia and the capital, Jefferson City. But across the state, many suburbs and other rural areas have approved it — including Howell, Oregon, Scotland and Knox counties. If you compare it to the 2020 governor’s race, when Republican candidate Mike Parson won all but four of the state’s counties, that’s a very different map.

As Republican politicians know well, consistent performance in rural and suburban areas can be what gets you across the finish line.

All this indicates that you are in a statewide legalization initiative need to Voters in major urban areas to go out. But you can’t either Number on their support—and you can’t assume that suburban and rural voters will oppose a measure. Metro counties can submit tens of thousands of votes each. But as Republican politicians well know, consistent performance in rural and suburban areas – where you’ll get votes in the thousands or even hundreds – can be what gets you across the finish line.

There is another potential wrinkle in the story in November – the toxic influence of former President Trump Repeating false claims that the 2020 elections were stolen, With fraudulent ballot postcards to blame. Could this discourage some Republican voters, some of whom support legalization, from participating?

Moffat said: “It is likely to be the case that given the changes in rhetoric about voting by mail that Republicans have become somewhat skeptical about it.” “Historically this hasn’t been true. Both sides were equal until recent years. It’s kind of an allowance. Nobody knows what will happen this year.”


Photo via greenserenityca Across Pixabay

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