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What’s going on with recreational cannabis sales in Canada? Cannabis Group Auxly (OTC: CBWTF), Canopy Gwth (NASDAQ: CGC)

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Sales growth in Canada It seems Cannabis sector stagnation. newly, Canada Statistics The August retail report released cannabis sales from July increasing 0.2% to C$393.7 million ($288 million). However, in August, sales were up 13.0% from a year earlier, down from July’s 17.2% growth rate.

What do the data say? expert analysis

According to Pablo Zanek of Cantor Fitzgerald,the Canadian adult cannabis market “continued to slow in the third quarter of 2022 as it took year-by-year (YoY) trends, with sales increasing on a quarterly basis (QoQ) of 3%.”

as such Hifyre IQ Although 13% annual growth is “better than the consistent trends we’re seeing in the US market, Canadian per capita adult use lags major US states by a significant margin.”

“We believe Structural changes are necessary for the market to restore growth momentum. Prices continue to fall, but lower than in the past and we are seeing signs of stabilization,” he said. Zuanic said, who also noted who – which “Companies that acquire a stake tend to enjoy higher average prices,” They attribute this to “the most discerning consumer and companies that understand the race to the bottom is not sustainable.”

at the category level, the analyst noted that “pre-offers are the best performing products growing 46% year-over-year.” Among the most important licensing producers, in the third quarter of the year 22 “only Organigram collectibles OGI And the Global Village Farms VFF It grew above the average market pace in terms of quarterly terms, while canopy growth CGC And the Oxley XLY CBWTF They were the worst performers.”

Market growth for calendar 3Q22

According to ZuaniSales were up 13% year-over-year in Q322, which we consider to be a solid pace, although it indicates a continued slowdown in year-over-year growth rates. Moreover, from a quarterly perspective, Hifyre noted that “sales in Canada rose slightly sequentially after reversing negative growth for the chain for the first time in Q122,” the report states.

Weed sales in the third quarter of 22 were $1.16 billion, the highest quarterly sales. Although July sales were the highest single monthly sales to date, since thenSales declined sequentially on a monthly basis.

Furthermore it, Analyze the provincial sales report and found it Ontario It continues to lead the country in total marijuana sales, with quarterly sales of $459 million followed by Alberta at $202 million, British Columbia At a price of 177 million dollars and Quebec at $149 million, which remains among the most important in the country.

For categoriesZuanic noted that the trend of “smaller” categories shows an increase in the share of “flower sales continued into the third quarter of ’22, with the flower share declining by 270 basis points per second to 40% of total cannabis sales.”

Market share of licensed producers

According to the expertDespite the massive amount of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and attempted mergers of Canadian LPs, over time, sales became more and more fragmented.

In Q322, the top five companies by dollar share accounted for 37% of total cannabis sales, down sequentially from 39% (51% in Q3 of 21), and the top ten accounted for 56% of total cannabis sales, a sequential decline of 58% (70% in the second quarter of 21),” Note Zuanic.
Based on the current company structure, the leading LPs based on dollar sales share are:

    • Tilray Brands, Inc. TLRY 8.2% in Q3 22 (15.0% in Q3 of 21);
    • OrganiGram Collectibles OGI 8.2% (7.3%);
    • Village Farms Company VFF 6.3% (6.9%);
    • Canopy Growth Corp CGC 5.8% (10.0%);
    • Auxly Cannabis Group Inc. XLY CBWTF 4.8% (5.6%);
    • Decibel Cannabis Company Inc. DBCCF DB 4.5% (2.8%);
    • Cronos Group Inc. krone 4.3% (4.2%);
    • Bzam Cannabis Holdings (“BZAM‘) 3.1% (1.6%); and
    • Valens Corporation VLNS2.7% (1.9%).

in addition to, flower prices “It continued to decline in Canada, falling 4.3% sequentially to average C$5.12/gram, compared to $5.35/g in Q222, and down 14% year-over-year compared to 5.97. USD/gram in the third quarter,” according to the report.

Finally, Single Color LP Quarterly is described in the report saying: “Among the major companies, in Q3 22 (September calendar quarter) when the overall market was up 3% in a row, Tilray was + 3%; Hexo (now part of Tilray) -9%; organigram + 4%; canopy growth -11%; net sun farm unit VFF + 7%; Oxley -9%; and Cronos + 3%.”

 

Photo: Courtesy of Maxim Hopman on me Unsplash

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